Windows to Russia

What is Pakistan Army’s strategic direction? Is it to focus on western border, internal front/security, or eastern border? The simple answer to these questions is that existential threat remains from India and thus the primary focus must be on it.

The new army doctrine has done well to highlight the concept of deterrence and defence. Sub-conventional, conventional and nuclear tiers are the facets of warfare faced by Pakistan today. Yet, the Green Book and Pakistan’s new army doctrine are being misquoted, misunderstood and even exploited by sinister forces. The ISPR that is doing a good job needs to clarify again that the threat from India is increasing in terms of its military build-up, even as Pakistan deals with the post-9/11 non-state actors.

Western Border: By 2014, the US-Nato forces will be leaving Afghanistan, but the Taliban will be staying back! As they withdraw, it will be with the realisation that the use of military force proved inadequate. Also, the Afghan National Army that will be left on its own may collapse just like the South Vietnam Army did once the Americans left Vietnam. Even if Kabul does not fall for some time, the Afghan Taliban will emerge as a dominant force. So Pakistan’s army needs to build friendly relations with the Afghan Taliban.

Indeed, Pakistan has no conflict with the Taliban or other Afghans. A negotiated peace in Afghanistan facilitated by the ISI is in our national interest. After the withdrawal of the US-Nato troops from Afghanistan and reduced stress on the war on terror, the Pak Army’s focus on the Afghan border would reduce considerably. Therefore, logically the western border cannot be the strategic direction of our army in future.

Internal Front/Security: Terrorism has wrecked Pakistan’s internal fibre, economy, terrorised the society, resulted in thousands of deaths and untold tragedies. To deal with it, the state needs to pursue political, social and economic reforms. All elements of national power need to be harmonised to achieve synergetic effect against the terrorist malaise.

For the security component, an internal security force (perhaps under military command, but a separate organisation) must be established, trained and equipped. Globally, several internal security force models are available. The Pakistan Army was not created, nor is configured for policing duties. It should not be reduced to a glorified, elevated police force that is, probably, the intention of the state’s internal and external enemies.

Eastern Border: India continues to occupy Kashmir, the water issue has aggravated, resource clash with India rises. It arms feverishly and has become the world’s biggest arms importer. The Indian military developmental strategy (fleets of helicopters, high-tech airpower build up, etc) is to give teeth to its ‘Cold Start’ strategy. But the ‘Cold Start’ or attack within 72 hours of preparation cannot conquer Pakistan. Even the American view was that it could have mixed results.

In fact, now the ‘Cold Start’ offensive can lead to catastrophic effect. Pakistan’s defensive preparations, besides early mobilisation would be augmented by the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons Nasr against advancing Indian military forces. This, in turn, can lead to strategic nuclear exchange or an all-out nuclear war. A nuclear war will destroy the world in general, not just South Asia.

So a nuclear war must be avoided, which actually means that all wars between Pakistan and India need to be avoided. Peace is required between the two states. Diplomacy, trade and travel can prove helpful. However, absence of conflict can be the real guarantee of peace.

Nevertheless, Kashmir remains a flashpoint between India and Pakistan, and has to be resolved. A recent military clash in Kashmir could always escalate. If our army is oriented towards the western border and embroiled in the internal front, New Delhi will not even talk about Kashmir, let alone the desire to resolve it.

Peace with India: Peace talks with India, besides Kashmir, should focus on defence budget limits and military hardware inductions to ensure strategic balance. Both countries need to improve the quality of life of their citizens, rather than an open-ended arms race.

In future, the Pak Army will have to disengage from the western border, make peace on the internal front (Taliban, Baloch militants) and refocus on the eastern border.

After 2014, Pakistan Army will need to redeploy itself. This would add conventional deterrence to the ‘Cold Start’ and reduce the use of nuclear weapons, even though Pakistan’s credible nuclear deterrence would be in place.

However, peace with India can be achieved. For this, Pakistani statecraft should be backed by a lavishly nuclear armed, professional war fighting military machine called the Pakistan Army!

The writer is a retired brigadier and has authored a book titled Gwadar on the Global Chessboard. Email: nadirmir13@gmail.com Blog: wwwpakistangeopolitics.blogspot.com. The article has been posted with full consent of Nadir Mir and any issues with copyright should be sent to the author in person…

Windows to Russia

I read a very good Russian commentary and it was about what was going to happen to the USA one day. It was very well written and very thoughtful, it was not hateful and not anti-American, it was simply what most likely will happen to the USA…

It said simply that, “What goes around comes around!” or “You sow, so shall you reap!”

It talked about the terrible tragedies that are happening to countries all over the world because of US lead sanctions, that kill the everyday people not the leaders of said countries. It used Iran as an example and after I have done some studying, I have found that we have intentionally devastated the Iranian medical industry to try to sway the peoples opinion of their own government…

This is happening all over the world and is happening to many countries that do not deserve this type of treatment…

So as the article ended: One day the US/West will be in our shoes! Those shoes will only wear so long, before they need to be resoled. Then as they can not resole those shoes (from lack of supplies) and have to wander the Winter barefooted or with sacks tied around their feet, they will cry to the gods and ask, “Why Us? Why US? What did we do?”

Yes, one day it will happen and we will all be crying, “Why Us? Why US? What did we do?” and I am hear to tell you it is not what “we” did. It is what “we” did not do and that was that we did not stop out government from abusing the world and treating the world like a bunch of second rate people that deserve to die…

You can rule by force or by care and understanding. We have chosen force…

Oh by the way: You just read the article from a very good Russian source and Windows to Russia is that source! With 4000+ articles and more still coming. Do a search and see what you find…

Kyle Keeton
Windows to Russia…

What will the world look like about two decades from now? Obviously, nobody knows, but some things are more likely than others. Companies and governments have to make informed guesses, because some of their investments today will last longer than 20 years. In December, the United States National Intelligence Council published its guess: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.

The NIC foresees a transformed world, in which “no country – whether the US, China, or any other large country – will be a hegemonic power”. This reflects four “megatrends”: individual empowerment and the growth of a global middle class, diffusion of power from states to informal networks and coalitions, demographic changes owing to urbanization, migration and aging, and increased demand for food, water and energy.

Each trend is changing the world and “largely reversing the historic rise of the West since 1750, restoring Asia’s weight in the global economy, and ushering in a new era of ‘democratization’ at the international and domestic level”. The US will remain “first among equals” in hard and soft power, but “the ‘unipolar moment’ is over”.

It is never safe, however, to project the future just by extrapolating current trends. Surprise is inevitable, so the NIC also identifies what it calls “game-changers”, or outcomes that could drive the major trends off course in surprising ways.

First among such sources of uncertainty is the global economy: Will volatility and imbalances lead to collapse, or will greater multipolarity underpin greater resilience? Similarly, will governments and institutions be able to adapt fast enough to harness change, or will they be overwhelmed by it?

Moreover, while interstate conflicts have been declining, intrastate conflicts driven by youthful populations, identity politics and scarce resources will continue to plague some regions like the Middle East, South Asia and Africa. And that leads to yet another potentially game-changing issue: whether regional instability remains contained or fuels global insecurity.

Then there is a set of questions concerning the impact of new technologies. Will they exacerbate conflict, or will they be developed and widely accessible in time to solve the problems caused by a growing population, rapid urbanization and climate change?

The final game-changing issue is America’s future role. In the NIC’s view, the multi-faceted nature of US power suggests that even as China overtakes America economically – perhaps as early as the 2020s – the US is most likely to maintain global leadership alongside other great powers in 2030. “The potential for an overstretched US facing increased demands,” the NIC argues, “is greater than the risk of the US being replaced as the world’s pre-eminent political leader.”

Is this good or bad for the world? In the NIC’s view, “a collapse or sudden retreat of US power would most likely result in an extended period of global anarchy”, with “no stable international system and no leading power to replace the US”.

The NIC discussed earlier drafts of its report with intellectuals and officials in 20 countries, and reports that none of the world’s emerging powers has a revisionist view of international order along the lines of Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan or the Soviet Union. But these countries’ relations with the US are ambiguous. They benefit from the US-led world order, but are often irritated by American slights and unilateralism. One attraction of a multipolar world is less US dominance; but the only thing worse than a US-supported international order would be no order at all.

The question of America’s role in helping to produce a more benign world in 2030 has important implications for US President Barack Obama as he approaches his second term. The world faces a new set of transnational challenges, including climate change, transnational terrorism, cyber insecurity and pandemics. All of these issues require cooperation to resolve.

Obama’s 2010 National Security Strategy argues that the US must think of power as positive-sum, not just zero-sum. In other words, there may be times when a more powerful China is good for the US (and for the world). For example, the US should be eager to see China increase its ability to control its world-leading greenhouse gas emissions.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has referred to the Obama administration’s foreign policy as being based on “smart power”, which combines hard and soft power resources, and argued that we should not talk about “multipolarity”, but about “multi-partnerships”. Likewise, the NIC report suggests that Americans must learn better how to exercise power with as well as over other states.

To be sure, on issues arising from interstate military relations, understanding how to form alliances and balance power will remain crucial. But the best military arrangements will do little to solve many of the world’s new transnational problems, which jeopardize the security of millions of people at least as much as traditional military threats do. Leadership on such issues will require cooperation, institutions and the creation of public goods from which all can benefit and none can be excluded.

The NIC report rightly concludes that there is no predetermined answer to what the world will look like in 2030. Whether the future holds benign or malign scenarios depends in part on the policies that we adopt today.

Project Syndicate

Joseph Nye is a professor at Harvard and author of The Future of Power.

Windows to Russia…

I think the steam that the US picked up after the 911 False flag and the non-existent WMD and the inevitable end to trying to control the un-controllable Opium fields of Afghanistan is coming to an end…

It was all to place themselves geo-politically into a prime position to intimidate Iran-Russa-China…

So now that the steam or pressure is running out, they (US) are panicking and just outright getting confrontational to get what they want from Russia, which is for Russia to relinquish its remaining stakes in places like Syria so that the US can continue to force its Petro-Dollar on all the countries of the world whilst it debases it and uses the revenue to take over the world militarily and dominate at the UN…

It’s all failing though, and with quibbles like this new law (NGO and Dima bills) it is showing exactly how pathetic the US has become on the world stage, and exactly what authoritarian dreams it has for world domination by its too big to fail banks that tell Obama what to do, when to do it, and who to do it to…

The best thing Russia and China could do would be to be patient and allow the US to finish off itself internally which is well underway, “Roman Style” right now as you read this…

The US and UK are funding terrorists to attack Assad in Syria and are screaming about peace and how bad Russia and its support for Syria is, are hypocrites who have no right to fund terrorist groups to overthrow other countries and regimes on the opposite side of the globe…

Kyle Keeton
Windows to Russia…

I warned you that this is a scary photo and would ruin your day, plus it will also enforce the belief you have that Russia is a barbaric world of heathens.

No he has not robbed a bank and he is not running from the cops… (Cops? What Cops?) I caught this kid in a run as he fought a horde of other kids in a furious battle to the death in our playground today. It looked just like it did in America when I grew up and we fought Indians and bad guys and Germans. I am not saying good or bad, I am saying that we did it as I grew up and Russians do it as they grow up…

I remember Summers of finger guns and inner tube guns ending many a Indian’s existence. Why it was what you did instead of killing things on a video screen…

It seems that everyday I am reminded about the old days of America in Russia…

Now I am worried about the mental state of America and her people. This image above would most likely lead to the cops being called and if that young man would carry that toy to school, he would be seriously reprimanded and most likely spend some time in detention and or worse…

I remember taking a real single shot 410 shotgun to school for show and tell. I did a lot of studying about the weapon and shared what I knew as facts and then passed on rules about how to carry and use a safe gun, where then explained. We learned about real things in those days…

So as I have said before, “Your freedoms are gone America!”, but I know a young Russian in the picture that has the freedom to play with toy guns and he is having a wonderful day in the snow…

Lets see your kid run across a playground with a toy gun and see how long before your kid has you in hot water…

What is wrong with you America? We point our fingers at all the wrong reasons for things happening and we blame all the others in the world and in our own neighborhood, as we ourselves live in a world of fantasy and Hollywood…

This photo is why I love Russia. It is life in real time, not computer time. Kids in Russia run, play, jump, scream, fight and yes play with toy guns…

Besides they do all this when it is -15c and below outside…

Kyle Keeton

When I grew up in America and played in the snow, skated on the frozen ponds and sledded the hills. I never contemplated more than one type of cold. When it was Winter it was just cold and that was that. This is what is going through my mind as I sip a cup of coffee this morning and I have learned that there is a difference to the cold…

In Russia I have discovered that Russians look at Winter and coldness as it means the difference as to the coat you wear. You have a coat for the soft cold (0c to around -5c), a coat for medium cold (around -5c to -20c), a coat for hard cold (-20c to -30c) and then you have a coat that is for the times when it is just plain cold (-30c to -?). Now Russians also have many coats for above freezing temperatures also…

My best coat as I write this is good to -35c and the coat that I brought from America, that was my Winter coat years ago, does not hold a candle for warmth compared to this coat. Russians look at cold a whole different way than many in the US do, but the exception would be the very far Northern Americans…

So every morning Sveta checks the temperature and picks the coat to fit that temperature. It makes sense and today I am writing this because I picked the wrong coat as I went out today and found myself freezing to death. It is plain cold outside and it is just medium cold, but I got use to a few days of soft cold and did not look to see what the weather was like… 🙂

Life in Russia demands good coats, good hats and mittens…

There really is a big difference in colds! When I first got here I was not able to tell the difference, but now after years of living here, I can discern the subtleties…

A soft cold is nice and I jokingly call it the Russian Bahama weather. Sveta likes that and uses it also. Medium cold is one that will get you if you are unaware. Medium cold is like your old freezer. Freezes everything hard as a rock, except real ice cream and that takes hard cold to do that. Hard cold will freeze that ice cream to a good stage and the same will happen to your exposed head as you foolishly travel around with no hat on. Now just plain cold is a point that ice cream is so hard that it takes a band-saw to cut it and most cars decide to take a permanent siesta from life, or at least until the weather gets warmer. Just plain cold is when even the outside chess players in Russia decide to play in hand mittens, or suffer frost bite…

Just plain cold is fur coats, fur hats and you let the fur grow on all your body parts and no one cares…

So today I went out and after a hundred meters, I realized that I definitely made the wrong choice of coat, but it was too late to turn around and I turned up the collar and pulled down the stocking hat. I even used only gloves and should have had mittens…

I just love Russia… 🙂

Kyle Keeton
Windows to Russia…

MOSCOW, January 9 (Itar-Tass) – Russia terminated the Adoption Agreement with the United States on January 1, 2013, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday.

“On January 1, the Russian Foreign Ministry officially notified the U.S. embassy in Moscow that Russia is terminating rather than ‘freezing’ the aforesaid Agreement in connection with the coming in force on the same date of a federal law on measures of influencing persons linked to violation of basic human rights and liberties and the rights and individual freedoms of citizens of Russia,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

“Any other interpretations or attempts to distort the essence of our position are unacceptable. We have terminated the aforesaid Agreement,” the Russian Foreign Ministry emphasized.

Xi Jinping, The secretary-general of the Chinese Communist Party, underlined his country’s commitment to a Russian partnership when he noted that he and President Vladimir Putin “came to the unanimous conclusion” that a “comprehensive strategic partnership” between Moscow and Beijing remains the “top priority of their foreign policy.” The comments were made on Tuesday during a visit to Beijing by Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev, who is participating in the eighth round of Russian-Chinese consultations on strategic security…

The reset between Russia and America seems to have been merely a American ploy to win Russia’s trust at the same time that a threatening military technology was being introduced courtesy of the Obama administration. This fact has been proven out time and time again! The attempt at reset with China was under the same pretenses and then after the ground work was laid, America started to try to surround China with military radars and missiles, also at the courtesy of Obama…

So in reality the folly of the US has strengthened a bond between Russia and China, as well as virtually all the Asian countries have pulled together in a tighter bond. It is real obvious…

Interesting things are happening as China easily consumes all gas and oil from Russia that it can get, while at the same time it tries to convince Russia to ignore Europe and send more oil and gas supplies in ever increasing volume to Asia. Then yet Europe who is in no pleasant situation, keeps trying to degrade Russia and mouth weasel Russia to death, all about human rights and other stupid issues. That She (Europe) herself is guilty of performing constantly also…

China wants the brunt of gas and oil from Russia and Vietnam wants to send gas and oil with Russia’s help into China. The whole of Asia is becoming interconnected and intermingled. Unity is building a powerhouse and this powerhouse is flagrantly in the face of the West trying to keep it from happening…

You know! Be it right or wrong, I see a Western world that has lost the ability to be diplomatic and truthful. I know that Russia and China have their diplomatic issues, but those issues are nothing compared to a treacherous, deceiving and immoral Western Empire that has only one goal and that is world dominance on a massive scale…

Lets see how this reset collapse will play out in the world as leaders of Asia see the truth being played out in front of their eyes…

Kyle Keeton
Windows to Russia…

While the country seems to have the name Thailand, I remember well that many people there still called it Siam. Especially the elderly people. I have been to Thailand before, but to enter the country as a military baboon is not the same thing as entering a country and seeing it with fresh unadulterated eyes…

So Sveta and I are going to get a trip together to Thailand. Sveta wants to swim and I want to see another country in a tourist eye frame. We also have discussed that Thailand may just be a good spot to buy property and have a Winter home located there. There seems to be a good set up that allows people (foreigner) to buy a flat and you pay someone a nominal fee to clean it and care for the place while you are not around. This also is a beginning ticket to working toward citizenship of Thailand. Sounds good to me…

It is visa free for both of us for a period of one month and that is always a criteria for us to travel to another country. If Sveta has to get a visa then we do not travel there and it is starting to look like many countries are joining the Russian bandwagon…

I see that there is a whole bunch of Russians that travel to Thailand and there seems to be a bunch of great travel deals to Thailand. I have to say that Russians know what countries to travel to and where to get the deals traveling. Russians are big on world travel and while many parts of the world grumble about them damn Russians, they always love that money that the Russians bring to their doorstep as they cross the borders…

So maybe soon Sveta and I will be on our way to Thailand…

Kyle Keeton
Windows to Russia…

On January 14th, 2013 the Orthodox New Year is happening. This is because it is really only just January 1st according to the Julian calendar which is used by the Orthodox to keep track of the days of the year. So since we just had Christmas on the Gregorian calendar of the 7th of January and now according to the Gregorian calendar it is going to be the 14th of January, when the Orthodox celebrate the New Year on the Julian calendar…

Confused? I use to be until I live it every year and I still love all the holidays…

So lets back track and see what we get to celebrate in Russia…

1. Gregorian December 25th 2012, Materialistic Western Christmas…
2. Gregorian January 1st 2013, Materialistic Western New Year and Eastern Materialistic New Year/Christmas… (Russian Santa Clause Time!)
3. Gregorian January 7th 2013, Eastern Orthodox Christmas… (actually Julian – Dec. 25th, 2012)
4. Gregorian January 14th 2013, Eastern Orthodox New Year… (actually Julian – January 1st, 2013)

That is the basics and I have to tell you that everyone of those nights is presented with tons of fireworks until 2 or 3 in the morning. Any excuse is a good excuse for a Russian to fire off fireworks and when you have so many New Years/Christmas celebrations, well – bang, bang and boom is the mood…

So according to what you believe on this Monday, January 14th 2013 is the real New Year according to the Julian calendar…

It dawned on me that the Western Christmas is so materialistic and when I saw that the New Years is Russia was the same, I was a little upset that the Russians had such views also. Even though Russians do not claim that there is any religion involved in their Christmas time, as they do claim in the Western countries. Then I was pleasantly surprised to find a Christmas and a New Year in Russia that did not have roots in capitalism and greed. The Orthodox Christmas and New Year fits that bill very nicely, thank you…

Have a Happy New Year! (No matter which New Year you celebrate…)

Kyle Keeton
Windows to Russia…