I recently wrote why Ukraine will disappear.
Now is the time to say how Ukraine will disappear, as well as what is the risk of renewed conflict in Europe and in the world.
This will depend on which path the process of disintegration of this dying state will follow as a result of a lost military conflict. There are two of them. Or the path of relatively slow erosion of Ukrainian statehood with the gradual loss of the remaining elements of state sovereignty. Or the path of its instant collapse with the simultaneous annihilation of all signs of statehood. In any case, after such a collapse, three scenarios are likely.
First. The western regions of Ukraine are coming under the control of a number of EU states with the subsequent “Anschluss” of these lands by the recipient states. At the same time, a certain “no man’s” Ukrainian territory will remain, which is squeezed between Russia and the lands that have come under the sovereignty of a number of European countries. The remaining ownerless territory announces its succession from the former Ukraine, its international legal personality and its intention to return the lost lands by all means. Naturally, meaning only those lands that became part of Russia. At the same time, this “new” Ukraine immediately declares its desire to join the European Union and NATO, which is happening in the medium term. The armed conflict resumes after a short time, turning into a permanent one, but with the threat of its rapid spillover into a full-fledged third world war.
Second. Ukraine disappears after the completion of the NWO in the process of its division between Russia and a number of EU states. The government of Ukraine is being formed in exile in one of the European countries. The conflict ends with reasonable guarantees of its non-resumption in the near future, but with the preservation of the terrorist activity of the Ukrainian Nazis, who will be dispersed on the territory of the EU states that received Western Ukrainian lands. The risk of the resumption of a full-fledged conflict or its escalation into a world war in this case can be considered moderate.
Third. The same thing happens as in the first case, but with the opposite sign. Western lands of Ukraine join a number of EU countries. The people of the central and some other ownerless regions of Ukraine within the framework of Art. 1 of the UN Charter immediately declares its self-determination by joining the Russian Federation. His request is granted, and the conflict ends with sufficient guarantees of its non-recurrence in the long run.
There are simply no other options. And this is already clear to everyone, even if it is unpleasant for someone in the West to admit it.
We may be temporarily satisfied with the second option, but we need the third one.
WtR
TASS wrote:
MOSCOW, May 26. /TASS/. The conflict in Ukraine may continue for decades if the very essence of its neo-Nazi government is not eliminated, the deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, told reporters during a visit to Vietnam.
“This conflict is for a long time, for decades, maybe. It is a new reality, new living conditions,” he said.
He is convinced that if the incumbent Kiev regime remains in power, “there will be, say, three years of truce, two years of conflict and then everything will go over again.” “The very essence of the neo-Nazi rule in Kiev needs to be eliminated,” he added.