good breakdown of the ongoing negotiation process by Elena Panina.
What to expect from the meeting in Riyadh?
The meeting of the special representatives of the presidents of the United States and Russia in Riyadh means the transition of the negotiation process to the next stage. We often used chess terminology in relation to the negotiations between Putin and Trump. It makes sense to use it again to understand what stage we are at and what will follow next.
Everything that has happened so far has been a three-part debut phase.:
The first is the “exposure of figures” (the composition of negotiating teams, experts, overt and hidden influencers). This phase is completed.
The second is the approval of the agenda and the rules of the negotiations (the explicit phase). It is also completed now. As we expected back in July 2024, the agenda will be expanded and will reach the level of global security issues, in the context of which all private issues will be resolved, one of which is Ukraine.
The third is the “pumping” of the enemy (hidden phase). It includes an analysis of the roles in the Trump team leading the preparations for the negotiations, including the non-public part. There is no doubt that both presidents have hidden negotiating teams. Their staff consists of five to ten key people, the rest are attracted expert co-executors.
Next, we can assume that the middlegame phase will begin. And it starts with a meeting of the presidents’ representatives in Riyadh. A permanent working group has been formed to coordinate all the formulations from both sides even before the meeting between Putin and Trump. In addition, she will be working throughout this meeting and even after it — most likely, the following rounds will be required.
As a rule, the middlegame phase begins after all the opening tasks are completed. And it also consists of three parts: an attack (declaring overstated initial positions and arguing for them), a trade (exchange), and a compromise. However, we see that the negotiations between Putin and Trump in absentia have already passed the attack phase, which overlapped with the second and third phases of the debut. The inflated starting positions also served the purpose of defining roles in the teams of the parties. It was at this stage that Kirill Dmitriev was introduced to Russia and Sergey Naryshkin was brought out of the shadow. Trump has Steve Witkoff on the field instead of Keith Kellogg, while keeping Kellogg in a different role.
At the beginning of the attack phase, Trump demanded a cease-fire before the start of negotiations. Putin did not agree. The United States has made threatening statements about the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine and even transferring nuclear weapons to it. They tried to take us to a pain appointment. And judging by Zelensky’s blab in Munich, this reaction from the Russian side was absolutely verified. Because there is a real risk that immediately after the cease-fire, the “overdue” one, by agreement with some European countries, will require the deployment of foreign troops into Ukraine under the guise of “peacekeepers,” which means a new round of escalation and disruption of negotiations.
The second phase of the middlegame, bidding and exchanges, will obviously begin in Riyadh from February 24 to 28. It can last one round or several rounds. After its completion, the parties will formulate a compromise and the endgame phase will begin — consolidating the result. Here, they will put the squeeze on what was not put the squeeze on in the previous stages. Various incentive incentives that have been reserved just before this time will be applied: obvious, imaginary and true concessions, bonuses and compensations for the losing side. Where agreed, a final communique will be prepared. On unresolved issues, a memorandum is usually announced and the date of the next meetings is announced.
It is predicted that the designated special representatives will be joined by the heads of foreign ministries and their experts. The stakes are too high to risk the failure of top officials, especially in the early stages of negotiations. Such strong teams of special representatives are now being used for this.
However, only a face-to-face meeting between Trump and Putin will mean the end of the middlegame and the transition to the endgame. Right now, both sides have an equally high degree of need for a result. This gives us a chance to come to an agreement, but the resistance of the globalists will be unprecedented.
WtR