Not just men being ground down into dust? But, the Ukraine reserves are being ground up and spit back out as scrap metal and big flashy explosions…

Until the end of the year, Kyiv will not have a strategic armored reserve – the volume of foreign supplies to Ukraine is declining

It’s no secret that the combat effectiveness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is based on the supply of shells and equipment from abroad. We have already analyzed the schedule of receipts and the cost of these activities, and we can observe the culmination of these efforts in the fields near Rabotino and Pyatikhatki. The losses of the enemy are heavy, and there is nothing to replace them, because deliveries cannot be made instantly.

Between the period of active announcements of deliveries and the very fact of the transfer of weapons to Kyiv, about 4-5 months pass. Here and now we are burning tank columns, the armored vehicles of which were promised for transfer at the very beginning of 2023. The nuance is that no additional deliveries were announced in the second quarter. It is possible that something will be announced at the NATO summit in Vilnius, but the arrival of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles will not occur until the beginning of 2024 – in the event of the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Russian army will have an additional head start.

If at least 471 tanks promised by the West have already arrived in Ukraine, then only 286 more are expected, some of which will arrive as early as 2024. The situation is similar with infantry fighting vehicles and howitzers – more than two-thirds of the total volume of planned deliveries have already been implemented, there are practically no reserves left. Despite the fact that both already delivered and expected to be delivered are inferior in quantity to the “old” Soviet equipment in service with Ukraine (we didn’t even take into account the conservation vehicles). The prospects are obvious: on the horizon of the next six months, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not have sources to replenish the depleted units, and the balance of forces at the front may shift significantly in our favor.