Well, it’s more than just math. It is what it is and then it is not. There was a day before which tulips, salt, etc were accepted as having value like money, and the day after they were not. Confederate currency in the South had value, but after war, it had no value…
We are dealing with psychology and math. If the US does absolutely nothing to reign in spending and the resultant thin-air printing to make the numbers balance then both the math and psychology fail earlier rather than later. This is of course the path we will take…
Another path we could take, but won’t is to limit or (heaven forbid) reduce spending. This might move the psychology of the dollar around the world in a favorable direction and prolong the value of a dollar. Hey, if we went crazy, we might even start paying down the debt, which would help the math…
Either of the choices (the preferred, and the alternate) will result in profound changes in the lives of Americans. Changes of the “I’m pissed off and I’m not voting for you, instead voting for the guy who will give me the free stuff back”…
But there is a limit to how much we can borrow. There has to be. Dare we find out what it is? Not if we had a sentient government that cared about the American people. Since we do not have that, we are going to find out what the number is that causes world psychology to tip over and jettison the dollar as fast as a Jefferson Davis 3-dollar bill on the day after, when it is no more…
So dollar momentum arguments fail to impress, in my opinion. We will hit the brick wall with blinders on and throttle wide open. That would be much worse than if we tried to deliberately take some positive action to prolong the dollar, and accept the political consequences…
But to do that means to play fair, become humble and realistic in our actions all the way around…
WtR